Comments for G Dan Mitchell | Photography http://www.gdanmitchell.com Daily California Photography | News and Commentary Fri, 04 Jul 2008 06:29:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 Comment on I shoot Canon. Nikon is on a roll. I’m glad. by G Dan Mitchell http://www.gdanmitchell.com/2008/07/02/i-shoot-canon-nikon-is-on-a-roll-im-glad#comment-8229 G Dan Mitchell Thu, 03 Jul 2008 04:37:02 +0000 http://www.gdanmitchell.com/?p=2115#comment-8229 Yes, it is really going to be interesting to see what Canon does next. (And Sony, but that's a different topic...) For me, the really interesting thing about this new Nikon is that Nikon has not held back features at all, to the extent that this camera will likely cannibalize sales of the D3. That is a gutsy move, but I suspect that it will pay off for Nikon since there are likely to be more sales at the sub-$3000 price than at the higher price point of the D3, and the D3 was probably not considered to be a big seller anyway. In the short term I think Canon could get away with introducing a "5DII" that goes to 16MP (that will make a lot of folks happy), adds the other features that they have incorporated into more recent cameras, increases burst rate to 4.5 or so, and perhaps adds at least some additional body sealing. That would not be an astounding camera, but I think it would still compete well with the D700, and for some users (e.g. landscape photographers and similar) it would still be the better of the two cameras. I don't think Canon will be able to sustain a $3000+ price for this camera though. I think Canon has some other issues to deal with, too - though they also have some strengths that they can still draw on. I really wonder what is going to happen in the medium term with the 1DMKIII. It really is a very capable body, but if Canon adds features to the 5D-type camera to make it competitive with the D700, the 1D is going to look a whole lot less attractive to quite a few buyers. It wouldn't surprise me, given the Nikon announcement and the well-publicized focus issues with the 1DMKIII, if this model has a short lifespan and gets replaced with a full frame body in somewhat short order. One place where I think Canon potentially has an ace up the sleeve is at the low end. As we know, they are apparently going to introduce a new 1000D sub-Rebel body. At first thought, it seems like Canon is going to have too many crop sensor bodies in the lower half of their market at that point: 1000D, XSi, and 40D. However, I've thought for some time that Canon would eventually migrate the 40D market segment to full frame. If they were to introduce a 12 MP full frame 40D (let's call it the 40Df) for under $2000 they could sell a lot of them - in some ways they could almost do this with the existing 5D. At that point the cropped sensor 40D would go away. This has a secondary benefit for Canon. We've see the problem with intermodel competition between the Rebels and the X0D cameras. If Canon makes the Rebels too good the incentive to buy X0D bodies diminishes. If they don't improve the Rebels, Nikon and others eat their lunch. If the 40D-type camera moves to full frame, the Rebels would be free to develop into Canon's best crop sensor bodies, and this could be done without really increasing prices at all. If I were Canon I might even think about putting an upgraded Rebel - 12 MP, faster burst mode, etc. - into a 40D-like body and pricing it like the current Rebels. Now <i>that</i> would be a very competitive model in their largest market, the entry-level DSLR. In any case, it seems that the progress has not stopped in the DSLR market - and, in fact, it looks like it is about to move faster once again. Dan Yes, it is really going to be interesting to see what Canon does next. (And Sony, but that’s a different topic…)

For me, the really interesting thing about this new Nikon is that Nikon has not held back features at all, to the extent that this camera will likely cannibalize sales of the D3. That is a gutsy move, but I suspect that it will pay off for Nikon since there are likely to be more sales at the sub-$3000 price than at the higher price point of the D3, and the D3 was probably not considered to be a big seller anyway.

In the short term I think Canon could get away with introducing a “5DII” that goes to 16MP (that will make a lot of folks happy), adds the other features that they have incorporated into more recent cameras, increases burst rate to 4.5 or so, and perhaps adds at least some additional body sealing. That would not be an astounding camera, but I think it would still compete well with the D700, and for some users (e.g. landscape photographers and similar) it would still be the better of the two cameras. I don’t think Canon will be able to sustain a $3000+ price for this camera though.

I think Canon has some other issues to deal with, too - though they also have some strengths that they can still draw on. I really wonder what is going to happen in the medium term with the 1DMKIII. It really is a very capable body, but if Canon adds features to the 5D-type camera to make it competitive with the D700, the 1D is going to look a whole lot less attractive to quite a few buyers. It wouldn’t surprise me, given the Nikon announcement and the well-publicized focus issues with the 1DMKIII, if this model has a short lifespan and gets replaced with a full frame body in somewhat short order.

One place where I think Canon potentially has an ace up the sleeve is at the low end. As we know, they are apparently going to introduce a new 1000D sub-Rebel body. At first thought, it seems like Canon is going to have too many crop sensor bodies in the lower half of their market at that point: 1000D, XSi, and 40D. However, I’ve thought for some time that Canon would eventually migrate the 40D market segment to full frame. If they were to introduce a 12 MP full frame 40D (let’s call it the 40Df) for under $2000 they could sell a lot of them - in some ways they could almost do this with the existing 5D. At that point the cropped sensor 40D would go away. This has a secondary benefit for Canon. We’ve see the problem with intermodel competition between the Rebels and the X0D cameras. If Canon makes the Rebels too good the incentive to buy X0D bodies diminishes. If they don’t improve the Rebels, Nikon and others eat their lunch. If the 40D-type camera moves to full frame, the Rebels would be free to develop into Canon’s best crop sensor bodies, and this could be done without really increasing prices at all. If I were Canon I might even think about putting an upgraded Rebel - 12 MP, faster burst mode, etc. - into a 40D-like body and pricing it like the current Rebels. Now that would be a very competitive model in their largest market, the entry-level DSLR.

In any case, it seems that the progress has not stopped in the DSLR market - and, in fact, it looks like it is about to move faster once again.

Dan

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